From the Desk of the Superintendent
Superintendent J. Brian Sarvis, Ed.D.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Enrollment Trends
Student enrollment for non-charter schools may be changing from the pattern of decline we have seen for a number of years at the elementary level. However, enrollment declines are expected to continue at the secondary level. District enrollment history and projections are as follows:
| Year | Elementary | Secondary |
| 2004-05 actual | 4,483 | 10,553 |
| 2005-06 actual | 4,703 | 10,516 |
| 2006-07 actual | 4,568 | 10,316 |
| 2007-08 projection | 4,437 | 10,120 |
| 2008-09 projection | 4,455 | 9,758 |
| 2009-10 projection | 4,479 | 9,675 |
The enrollment totals represent a combination of factors: year-to-year loss of students from the South Coast mitigated by higher county birth rates, changes in interdistrict transfer policies by other elementary school districts, and a population bulge soon to be exiting high schools.
The number of students enrolled in the district population bulge in many years is now at the twelfth-grade level. The fewest number of secondary students are at the seventh- and eighth-grade level. But instead of continuing to decline at each lower grade level (e.g., 4, 3, 2, 1, and K), the numbers of students enrolled in the lower grades is more than the enrollment at grades 5 and 6. As a result, more students are expected to be entering kindergarten than will be leaving the elementary district at the sixth-grade level over the next two years.